Arizona Senate polls, Gallego vs. Lake
Gallego has a 4.0% lead based on 20 polls.
May 2, 2024
Gallego
41.4%
Lake
37.4%
Estimate
95% of polls fall in this range
A bit of background... The 2024 Arizona Senate race is shaping up to be a highly competitive contest, with both parties vying for control of this crucial swing state. Analysts expect a tight race, with the Democratic and Republican candidates trading leads within the margin of error. Arizona's diverse electorate and shifting political landscape make it a key battleground state. The outcome of this race could have significant implications for the balance of power in the Senate, given Democrats will need to sweep key races to maintain control of the chamber.
20 polls
Latest Poll: Thu, May 2, 5:07 AM EDT
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 – 30 | 1,000 RV | Emerson College Poll... | 45.3%Gallego 43.1%Lake | +2 Gallego |
| Apr 11 – 12 | 600 LV | The Tyson Group/Brea... | 39.0%Gallego 34.0%Lake | +5 Gallego |
| Mar 30 – Apr 4 | 600 RV | Independent Center/B... | 41.0%Gallego 41.0%Lake | TIE |
| Mar 29 – Apr 1 | 503 RV | RABA Research | 36.0%Gallego 28.0%Lake | +8 Gallego |
| Mar 13 – 16 | 1,000 RV | Emerson College Poll... | 44.2%Gallego 40.0%Lake | +4 Gallego |
| Feb 22 – 27 | 1,001 LV | Rasmussen Reports | 37.0%Lake 33.0%Gallego | +4 Lake |
| Feb 17 – 20 | 1,000 RV | Emerson College Poll... | 35.9%Gallego 30.0%Lake | +6 Gallego |
| Feb 7 – 14 | 1,002 RV | Nobel Predictive Ins... | 47.0%Gallego 37.0%Lake | +10 Gallego |
| Jan 30 – Feb 1 | 500 LV | J.L. Partners/Kari L... | 40.0%Lake 39.0%Gallego | +1 Lake |
| Jan 6 – 7 | 590 RV | Public Policy Pollin... | 46.0%Lake 45.0%Gallego | +1 Lake |
+ More Polls
The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).
Ruben Gallego
Ruben Gallego is an American politician and member of the Democratic Party. He has served as the U.S. Representative for Arizona's 7th congressional district since 2015. Before his tenure in Congress, Gallego served in the Arizona House of Representatives, where he was the assistant minority leader. He is a Harvard University graduate and a U.S. Marine Corps veteran who served in the Iraq War. His policy interests include immigration reform, gun control, and veterans' affairs.
Kari Lake
Kari Lake is a former news anchor who worked for Fox 10 in Phoenix, Arizona for over 20 years. She announced her candidacy for the Arizona 2022 gubernatorial race as a Republican. Lake's political agenda includes strict immigration laws, election integrity, and support for law enforcement. She is endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Her campaign is centered on conservative values and a return to what she describes as traditional Republican principles.
