A bit of background... The 2024 Arizona Senate race is shaping up to be a highly competitive contest, with both parties vying for control of this crucial swing state. Analysts expect a tight race, with the Democratic and Republican candidates trading leads within the margin of error. Arizona's diverse electorate and shifting political landscape make it a key battleground state. The outcome of this race could have significant implications for the balance of power in the Senate, given Democrats will need to sweep key races to maintain control of the chamber.

The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).