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Decision Desk HQ and The Hill's ultimate hub for polls, predictions, and election results.

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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

undefined undefined Forecast tossup POTENTIAL FLIP

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Mondaire Jones has a 54% chance of winning .

CandidatePartyWin %

Mondaire Jones

54%

Mike Lawler

INCUMBENT

46%

Chance of winning undefined over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

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Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Mondaire Jones

Cash on hand

$3,607,135

Raised

$3,676,172

Spent

$1,163,799

Date

June 5, 2024

Candidate

Mike Lawler

Cash on hand

$3,317,086

Raised

$2,022,563

Spent

$1,658,297

Date

June 5, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for . By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 House 17Vote %Total Votes

Sean Patrick Maloney

49.68%

141,730

Michael V. Lawler

50.32%

143,550

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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