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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

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Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Joe Biden has a 71% chance of winning .

A New England state dominated by moderate voters, New Hampshire primarily supported Republicans in presidential elections from the party's formation until 1988. Since the early 1990s, however, it has started leaning toward the Democrats at the presidential level. Democrats have carried the state by single digits in every election since 1992, except for George W. Bush's narrow victory in 2000. Joe Biden won New Hampshire by 7% in 2020, following Hillary Clinton’s razor-thin 0.3% victory in 2016. Given the close 2016 results and a competitive gubernatorial race expected in 2024, New Hampshire is considered a secondary battleground. However, the state has shown a stronger Democratic tilt at the federal level in recent years. New Hampshire's entirely Democratic congressional delegation won re-election by comfortable margins in 2022, despite the national Republican advantage that year.

CandidatePartyWin %

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

71%

Donald Trump

29%

Chance of winning undefined over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

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Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for . By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 President Vote %Total Votes

Joe Biden

52.78%

424,937

Donald Trump

45.42%

365,660

Jo Jorgensen

1.64%

13,236

Howie Hawkins

0.03%

217

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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