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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

undefined undefined Forecast tossup POTENTIAL FLIP

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 58% chance of winning .

Once a part of the "Blue Wall" but a purple state today, the last four presidential elections in Wisconsin without Barack Obama on the ballot were decided by less than 1%. The last Republican president to win Wisconsin by double digits was fellow Midwesterner Dwight D. Eisenhower; the last one to win the state twice was Ronald Reagan; and the only presidential candidates to carry the state by double digits after 1956 were Democrats Bill Clinton and Barack Obama in 1996 and 2008, respectively. In 2016, Donald Trump narrowly won Wisconsin by 0.77% in his surprise sweep of the Midwest and Rust Belt, becoming the first Republican since Reagan in his 1984 landslide to win the state's electoral votes. However, in 2020, Democrat Joe Biden flipped Wisconsin back to blue by an even narrower margin of 0.63%. Given the state's competitive electoral history and nearly even partisan lean, Wisconsin is considered a crucial battleground in 2024.

CandidatePartyWin %

Donald Trump

58%

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

42%

Chance of winning undefined over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About undefined

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for . By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 President Vote %Total Votes

Joe Biden

49.55%

1,630,866

Donald Trump

48.92%

1,610,184

Jo Jorgensen

1.17%

38,491

Brian T. Carroll

0.16%

5,259

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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