This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

undefined undefined Forecast lean dem

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen, first elected in 2018 by 5% over then-incumbent Republican Dean Heller, is seeking a second term. Nevada, a typical swing state, is considered a purple state at the federal level, especially since Joe Biden carried it by 2.4% in the 2020 presidential election—a margin nearly identical to Hillary Clinton’s in 2016, despite the national popular vote shifting left. Both parties have had recent successes in the state: Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, majorities in both state legislative chambers, and all but one congressional seat, while Republicans flipped the governorship in 2022. U.S. Army veteran Sam Brown is the heavy favorite to win the Republican nomination, having significantly outraised his GOP competition and leading them in polls. No Republican has won any U.S. Senate race in Nevada since 2012. Given the state's nearly even partisan lean, this race is considered highly competitive; however, most early polls show Rosen as the favorite to win.