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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

California 1 House Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Doug Lamalfa has a >99% chance of winning California 1.

CandidatePartyWin %

Doug Lamalfa

INCUMBENT

>99%

Penelope Yee

<1%

Chance of winning California 1 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About California 1

Cook PVI

R+12.2

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Doug Lamalfa

Cash on hand

$648,747

Raised

$364,087

Spent

$319,030

Date

March 31, 2024

Candidate

Penelope Yee

Cash on hand

$3,533

Raised

$20,695

Spent

$18,907

Date

March 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for California 1. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 California House 01Vote %Total Votes

Doug LaMalfa

62.07%

152,839

Max Steiner

37.93%

93,386

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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