Sponsored content

Decision Desk HQ / The Hill Logo

Decision Desk HQ and The Hill's ultimate hub for polls, predictions, and election results.

No results found

This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

California 39 House Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Mark Takano has a >99% chance of winning California 39.

CandidatePartyWin %

Mark Takano

INCUMBENT

>99%

David Serpa

<1%

Chance of winning California 39 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About California 39

Cook PVI

D+11.9

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Mark Takano

Cash on hand

$425,155

Raised

$409,697

Spent

$855,342

Date

March 31, 2024

Candidate

David Serpa

Cash on hand

$2,432

Raised

$13,914

Spent

$11,733

Date

March 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for California 39. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 California House 39Vote %Total Votes

Mark Takano

57.67%

75,896

Aja Smith

42.33%

55,701

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

Related Stories