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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

Florida 1 House Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Matt Gaetz has a >99% chance of winning Florida 1.

CandidatePartyWin %

Matt Gaetz

INCUMBENT

>99%

Gay Valimont

<1%

Chance of winning Florida 1 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Florida 1

Cook PVI

R+19.3

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Matt Gaetz

Cash on hand

$2,078,433

Raised

$4,531,657

Spent

$3,061,133

Date

March 31, 2024

Candidate

Gay Valimont

Cash on hand

$24,583

Raised

$257,925

Spent

$255,741

Date

March 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Florida 1. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 Florida House 01Vote %Total Votes

Matt Gaetz

67.86%

197,349

Rebekah D. Jones

32.14%

93,467

+ More Elections

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Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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