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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

Hawaii 1 House Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Edward Case has a >99% chance of winning Hawaii 1.

CandidatePartyWin %

Edward Case

INCUMBENT

>99%

Republican

<1%

Chance of winning Hawaii 1 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Hawaii 1

Cook PVI

D+13.6

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Edward Case

Cash on hand

$761,698

Raised

$96,216

Spent

$169,090

Date

March 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Hawaii 1. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 Hawaii House 01Vote %Total Votes

Ed Case

73.70%

143,546

Conrad Kress

26.30%

51,217

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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