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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

Louisiana 1 House Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Steve Scalise has a >99% chance of winning Louisiana 1.

CandidatePartyWin %

Steve Scalise

INCUMBENT

>99%

Melinari Manuel

<1%

Chance of winning Louisiana 1 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Louisiana 1

Cook PVI

R+21.6

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Steve Scalise

Cash on hand

$4,085,263

Raised

$1,921,226

Spent

$9,988,273

Date

March 31, 2024

Candidate

Melinari Manuel

Cash on hand

$4,646

Raised

$9,867

Spent

$5,700

Date

June 29, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Louisiana 1. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2008 Louisiana House 01Vote %Total Votes

Steve Scalise

56.79%

189,168

Jim Harlan

29.67%

98,839

Steve Scalise

10.17%

33,867

Gilda Reed

3.04%

10,142

+ More Elections

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Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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