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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

New Jersey 11 House Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Mikie Sherrill has a 98% chance of winning New Jersey 11.

CandidatePartyWin %

Mikie Sherrill

INCUMBENT

98%

Joseph Belnome

2%

Chance of winning New Jersey 11 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About New Jersey 11

Cook PVI

D+5.8

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Mikie Sherrill

Cash on hand

$1,256,662

Raised

$1,923,217

Spent

$2,033,568

Date

May 15, 2024

Candidate

Joseph Belnome

Cash on hand

$49,763

Raised

$56,698

Spent

$6,935

Date

May 15, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New Jersey 11. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 New Jersey House 11Vote %Total Votes

Mikie Sherrill

58.99%

161,436

Paul DeGroot

40.18%

109,952

Joseph Biasco

0.83%

2,276

+ More Elections

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Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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