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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

New York 14 House Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has a >99% chance of winning New York 14.

CandidatePartyWin %

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

INCUMBENT

>99%

Tina Forte

<1%

Chance of winning New York 14 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About New York 14

Cook PVI

D+27.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Cash on hand

$5,120,894

Raised

$7,887,439

Spent

$8,212,325

Date

June 5, 2024

Candidate

Tina Forte

Cash on hand

$14,818

Raised

$811,510

Spent

$803,108

Date

June 5, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New York 14. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 New York House 14Vote %Total Votes

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

70.72%

82,453

Tina Forte

27.39%

31,935

Desi Joseph Cuellar

1.89%

2,208

+ More Elections

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Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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