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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

New York 24 House Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Claudia Tenney has a >99% chance of winning New York 24.

CandidatePartyWin %

Claudia Tenney

INCUMBENT

>99%

David Wagenhauser

<1%

Chance of winning New York 24 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About New York 24

Cook PVI

R+12.6

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Claudia Tenney

Cash on hand

$552,189

Raised

$1,093,929

Spent

$1,509,949

Date

June 5, 2024

Candidate

David Wagenhauser

Cash on hand

$19,866

Raised

$25,778

Spent

$7,390

Date

June 5, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New York 24. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 New York House 24Vote %Total Votes

Claudia Tenney

65.70%

182,054

Steven Holden

34.30%

95,028

+ More Elections

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Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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