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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

Pennsylvania 12 House Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Summer Lee has a >99% chance of winning Pennsylvania 12.

CandidatePartyWin %

Summer Lee

INCUMBENT

>99%

James Hayes

<1%

Chance of winning Pennsylvania 12 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Pennsylvania 12

Cook PVI

D+7.8

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Summer Lee

Cash on hand

$1,179,946

Raised

$1,968,647

Spent

$1,164,573

Date

April 3, 2024

Candidate

James Hayes

Cash on hand

$12,833

Raised

$64,407

Spent

$52,074

Date

April 3, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Pennsylvania 12. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 Pennsylvania House 12Vote %Total Votes

Summer Lee

56.20%

184,674

Mike Doyle

43.80%

143,946

+ More Elections

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Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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