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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

Texas 30 House Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Jasmine Crockett has a >99% chance of winning Texas 30.

CandidatePartyWin %

Jasmine Crockett

INCUMBENT

>99%

Republican

<1%

Chance of winning Texas 30 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Texas 30

Cook PVI

D+26.8

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Jasmine Crockett

Cash on hand

$728,666

Raised

$655,127

Spent

$573,808

Date

March 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Texas 30. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 Texas House 30Vote %Total Votes

Jasmine Crockett

74.72%

134,876

James Rodgers

21.72%

39,209

Zachariah Manning

2.12%

3,820

Phil Gray

1.04%

1,870

+ More Elections

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Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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