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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

Connecticut Presidential Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Joe Biden has a 97% chance of winning Connecticut.

One of several reliable Democratic strongholds in New England, Connecticut has supported Democratic presidential candidates in eight consecutive elections since 1988, winning by double digits in each contest since 1992. Joe Biden carried the Constitution State by 20% in 2020.

CandidatePartyWin %

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

97%

Donald Trump

3%

Chance of winning Connecticut over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Connecticut

Cook PVI

D+7.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Electoral Votes

7

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Connecticut. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Connecticut President Vote %Total Votes

Joe Biden

59.26%

1,080,831

Donald Trump

39.19%

714,717

Jo Jorgensen

1.11%

20,230

Howie Hawkins

0.41%

7,538

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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