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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

Kansas Presidential Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 96% chance of winning Kansas.

Kansas has voted Republican in 21 of the last 22 presidential elections, the sole exception being in 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson's landslide victory carried all but six states. Although Trump won Kansas by 14.7% in 2020, Biden's 41.5% of the vote marked the highest share for a Democratic presidential nominee since Barack Obama in 2008. This significant swing towards Biden, relative to Hillary Clinton's performance in 2016, was one of the strongest in the nation, a trend attributed to Kansas having the second-highest proportion of residents with a college degree among states Trump won in 2020.

CandidatePartyWin %

Donald Trump

96%

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

4%

Chance of winning Kansas over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Kansas

Cook PVI

R+10.0

Last Winner

Republican

Electoral Votes

6

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Kansas. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Kansas President Vote %Total Votes

Donald Trump

56.21%

771,406

Joe Biden

41.56%

570,323

Jo Jorgensen

2.23%

30,574

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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