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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

Louisiana Presidential Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a >99% chance of winning Louisiana.

As a Deep Southern state situated largely within the Bible Belt, Louisiana has consistently supported Republican candidates in every presidential election since George W. Bush of neighboring Texas won in 2000, achieving double-digit victory margins since his 2004 re-election. Louisiana is expected to comfortably favor the Republican candidate again in 2024.

CandidatePartyWin %

Donald Trump

>99%

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

<1%

Chance of winning Louisiana over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Louisiana

Cook PVI

R+12.0

Last Winner

Republican

Electoral Votes

8

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Louisiana. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Louisiana President Vote %Total Votes

Donald Trump

58.46%

1,255,776

Joe Biden

39.85%

856,034

Jo Jorgensen

1.01%

21,645

Kanye West

0.23%

4,897

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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