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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

Missouri Presidential Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 97% chance of winning Missouri.

Once a near-infallible bellwether state, Missouri consistently supported the winning presidential candidate from 1904 until 2004, with only one exception. Since 2000, it has consistently voted Republican, losing its bellwether status when Barack Obama failed to win the state in both of his presidential campaigns. Subsequently, Donald Trump won Missouri by more than 15% in both of his elections. The state is expected to be solidly Republican in the 2024 presidential election as well.

CandidatePartyWin %

Donald Trump

97%

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

3%

Chance of winning Missouri over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Missouri

Cook PVI

R+10.0

Last Winner

Republican

Electoral Votes

10

6 polls

Jun 18 – 20

1,000 RV

Emerson College Poll...
56.7%

Trump

43.3%

Biden

+13 Trump

Apr 15 – 22

509 LV

John Zogby Strategie...
48.9%

Trump

43.4%

Biden

+6 Trump

Jan 24 – 29

1,830 RV

Emerson College Poll...
49.4%

Trump

31.9%

Biden

+18 Trump

+ More Polls

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Missouri. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Missouri President Vote %Total Votes

Donald Trump

56.80%

1,718,736

Joe Biden

41.41%

1,253,014

Jo Jorgensen

1.36%

41,205

Howie Hawkins

0.27%

8,283

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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