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Pennsylvania Presidential Forecast tossup POTENTIAL FLIP

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

The Keystone State, both in name and practice, Pennsylvania was widely regarded as the pivotal battleground, or most likely tipping-point state, in each of the last two presidential races. Its 19 electoral votes are the most of any state considered to be a true battleground in 2024, and are expected to be heavily contested by both campaigns in their path to 270. Pennsylvania has not backed a Republican for president by double digits since 1972, when 49-state landslide winner Richard Nixon won it by nearly 20 points; the last Republican to win the state's electoral votes twice was Ronald Reagan. Between 1992 and 2012, Pennsylvania voted Democrat in every presidential election, although doing so by single-digit margins each time apart from Barack Obama's 10.3% victory in 2008. In 2016, Republican Donald Trump narrowly carried the state by 0.7% in his upset sweep of the Rust Belt, marking the first Republican presidential victory in Pennsylvania since 1988, but four years later, he lost the state to Democrat Joe Biden—a native Pennsylvanian—by 1.2%.