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Texas Presidential Forecast likely gop

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

The second most populous state, awarding 40 electoral votes, Texas is generally considered to be a red state, having not voted Democratic in a presidential election since Southerner Jimmy Carter won it in 1976. Republicans have held all statewide offices since 1999. Texas' location in the American South and largely within the greater Bible Belt has contributed to the GOP’s dominance over the last several decades. However, some consider Texas a potential swing state, as the state backed Trump by 9% in 2016 and then by only 5.6% in 2020—the narrowest margin in Texas in the 21st century. Biden's 46.5% vote share in 2020 was the highest for a Democrat since Carter's victory. This shift is largely attributed to the fast-growing Texas Triangle—encompassing Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio—which houses more than 70% of the state’s population and is trending leftward, notably in the closely contested 2018 U.S. Senate race and the 2020 presidential election. However, predominantly Latino South Texas has shifted strongly toward Republicans over the last two cycles. Even as urban and suburban areas moved significantly toward Biden in 2020, many Hispanic voters in the south abruptly left the Democratic coalition, with the Rio Grande region shifting more decisively towards Trump than any other region in the country, except for the Miami-Dade area in Florida. Thus, Texas is favored to remain in the GOP column in 2024.