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Virginia Presidential Forecast lean dem

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Formerly a Republican stronghold in the Old South, Democratic strength in Virginia has surged over the last two decades and it is now considered a moderately blue state at the federal level. The last Republican to win this state's electoral votes was fellow Southerner George W. Bush in 2004, and the last to do so by double digits was the elder Bush in 1988. This shift is primarily due to the rapid growth and diversification of the Northern Virginia region, which includes some of Washington, D.C.'s largest suburbs. The downstate metro areas of Hampton Roads and Greater Richmond also serve as significant voting blocs for Democrats in Virginia. In 2020, Joe Biden won the state by just over 10 points, becoming the first Democratic presidential candidate to do so by double digits since FDR in 1944. Despite its Democratic lean at the federal level, Virginia could be considered a secondary battleground state and may be targeted by the GOP in 2024, particularly following the 2021 state elections where Republicans won every statewide office being contested. Nonetheless, most analysts consider Democrats the favorites to hold the commonwealth in 2024.