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Decision Desk HQ and The Hill's ultimate hub for polls, predictions, and election results.

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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

Washington Presidential Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Joe Biden has a 96% chance of winning Washington.

As the northernmost part of the Pacific Coast’s “Blue Wall”, the state of Washington has consistently voted Democratic in the last nine presidential elections since 1984, with margins exceeding 15% in the last four contests. In the 2020 election, Joe Biden won Washington by a 19% margin.

CandidatePartyWin %

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

96%

Donald Trump

4%

Chance of winning Washington over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Washington

Cook PVI

D+8.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Electoral Votes

12

10 polls

May 16 – 17

615 LV

Public Policy Pollin...
55.0%

Biden

39.0%

Trump

+16 Biden

Apr 17 – 24

250 RV

The Independent Cent...
46.0%

Trump

45.0%

Biden

+1 Trump

Apr 15 – 22

418 LV

John Zogby Strategie...
51.8%

Biden

39.7%

Trump

+12 Biden

+ More Polls

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Washington. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Washington President Vote %Total Votes

Joe Biden

58.36%

2,369,612

Donald Trump

39.03%

1,584,651

Jo Jorgensen

1.98%

80,500

Howie Hawkins

0.45%

18,289

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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