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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

Utah Senate Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that John Curtis has a >99% chance of winning Utah.

CandidatePartyWin %

John Curtis

>99%

Caroline Gleich

<1%

Chance of winning Utah Senate over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Utah

Cook PVI

R+13.0

Last Winner

Republican

5 polls

Oct 26 – 29

695 LV

Noble Predictive Ins...
54.0%

Curtis

26.0%

Gleich

+28 Curtis

Oct 3 – 8

600 RV

Noble Predictive Ins...
53.0%

Curtis

24.0%

Gleich

+29 Curtis

Aug 30 – Sep 20

526 RV

Lighthouse Research/...
52.5%

Curtis

33.8%

Gleich

+19 Curtis

+ More Polls

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

John Curtis

Cash on hand

$575,865

Raised

$1,508,345

Spent

$3,607,566

Date

June 5, 2024

Candidate

Caroline Gleich

Cash on hand

$85,610

Raised

$387,035

Spent

$303,924

Date

April 7, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Utah. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 Utah Senate Vote %Total Votes

Mike Lee

53.15%

571,974

Evan McMullin

42.74%

459,958

James Arthur Hansen

2.95%

31,784

Tommy Williams

1.12%

12,103

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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