undefined undefined Forecast tossup

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that John James has a 57% chance of winning .

Candidate	Party	Win %
John James INCUMBENT		57%
Carl Marlinga		43%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning undefined over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

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Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
John James	$2,315,703	$4,152,294	$6,767,254	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024
Carl Marlinga	$891,070	$2,108,950	$1,710,908	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024

Candidate

John James

Cash on hand

$2,315,703

Raised

$4,152,294

Spent

$6,767,254

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Carl Marlinga

Cash on hand

$891,070

Raised

$2,108,950

Spent

$1,710,908

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for . By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.