undefined undefined Forecast tossup POTENTIAL FLIP

Last Updated: Friday, October 25 at 12:50 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Josh Riley has a 56% chance of winning .

Candidate	Party	Win %
Josh Riley		56%
Marc Molinaro INCUMBENT		44%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning undefined over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

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Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Josh Riley	$2,299,756	$6,696,513	$5,825,620	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	September 30, 2024
Marc Molinaro	$1,630,839	$2,124,522	$3,251,929	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	September 30, 2024

Candidate

Josh Riley

Cash on hand

$2,299,756

Raised

$6,696,513

Spent

$5,825,620

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

September 30, 2024

Candidate

Marc Molinaro

Cash on hand

$1,630,839

Raised

$2,124,522

Spent

$3,251,929

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

September 30, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for . By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.