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Last Updated: Friday, September 27 at 9:01 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 69% chance of winning .

No state embodies the term 'Swing State' like Florida, which has been decided by less than 6 percentage points in eight consecutive elections—the longest active streak of its kind. Recently, however, the state has trended toward the political right. Notably, Donald Trump, who changed his residency from New York to Florida in 2019, won Florida by 3.4 percentage points in 2020, an increase from his 1.2% margin in 2016. This shift, largely attributed to increased support from Latino voters—particularly in Miami-Dade County where Biden's margin shrank to just 7.4 points compared to Clinton’s 29.4 points in 2016 and Obama’s 23.7 points in 2012—occurred despite Trump losing reelection nationwide and polls predicting a narrow Democratic victory. More recently, Republicans swept all statewide offices by double-digit margins in the 2022 midterms. Consequently, Florida is widely expected to lean Republican in the 2024 election.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Donald Trump		69%
Kamala Harris		31%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning undefined over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

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Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Donald Trump	$128,096,870	$9,832,322	$92,102,327	JULY QUARTERLY	June 30, 2024
Kamala Harris	$95,946,483	$117,347,709	$189,960,709	JULY QUARTERLY	June 30, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$128,096,870

Raised

$9,832,322

Spent

$92,102,327

Report

JULY QUARTERLY

Date

June 30, 2024

Candidate

Kamala Harris

Cash on hand

$95,946,483

Raised

$117,347,709

Spent

$189,960,709

Report

JULY QUARTERLY

Date

June 30, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for . By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.