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Decision Desk HQ and The Hill’s ultimate hub for polls, predictions, and election results.

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Last Updated: Thursday, September 19 at 12:11 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Kamala Harris has a 93% chance of winning .

Unlike every other state but Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote and one for each congressional district. The at-large statewide votes, while often closely contested by both parties, have consistently favored the Democratic presidential candidate since 1988. Joe Biden expanded the Democratic margin in Maine, winning the statewide popular vote by 9% in 2020, compared to Hillary Clinton’s 3% in 2016. Despite Maine’s Democratic-leaning status in 2024, the congressional districts are expected to split between Democratic and Republican candidates, as they did in both 2016 and 2020.

CandidatePartyWin %

Kamala Harris

93%

Donald Trump

7%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning undefined over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

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Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$128,096,870

Raised

$9,832,322

Spent

$92,102,327

Date

June 30, 2024

Candidate

Kamala Harris

Cash on hand

$95,946,483

Raised

$117,347,709

Spent

$189,960,709

Date

June 30, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for . By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 President Vote %Total Votes

Joe Biden

53.10%

435,072

Donald Trump

44.03%

360,737

Jo Jorgensen

1.73%

14,152

Howie Hawkins

1.00%

8,230

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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