undefined undefined Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Kamala Harris has a 95% chance of winning .

Unlike every other state but Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote and one for each congressional district. The at-large statewide votes, while often closely contested by both parties, have consistently favored the Democratic presidential candidate since 1988. Joe Biden expanded the Democratic margin in Maine, winning the statewide popular vote by 9% in 2020, compared to Hillary Clinton’s 3% in 2016. Despite Maine’s Democratic-leaning status in 2024, the congressional districts are expected to split between Democratic and Republican candidates, as they did in both 2016 and 2020.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Kamala Harris		95%
Donald Trump		5%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning undefined over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About undefined

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Kamala Harris	$118,825,510	$504,663,253	$880,198,347	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024
Donald Trump	$36,214,682	$54,519,239	$354,932,583	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024

Candidate

Kamala Harris

Cash on hand

$118,825,510

Raised

$504,663,253

Spent

$880,198,347

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$36,214,682

Raised

$54,519,239

Spent

$354,932,583

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for . By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.