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Last Updated: Thursday, September 19 at 12:11 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 64% chance of winning .

Although part of the Southern Bible Belt, North Carolina has been a competitive battleground state since the late 2000s. It has been narrowly decided in every presidential election since 2008, when Barack Obama won by a slim margin of 0.3%—the first Democratic presidential candidate to do so since Jimmy Carter, from neighboring Georgia, 32 years earlier. However, Republicans have won every federal race in North Carolina since Obama's victory, with each of the last six contests decided by less than 6% margins. North Carolina was the closest Republican state victory in 2012 and 2020 even though polling predicted a narrow win by Democrat Joe Biden in the latter. Today a purple to slightly red state, North Carolina is expected to be targeted by both parties in 2024.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Donald Trump		64%
Kamala Harris		37%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning undefined over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

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Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Donald Trump	$128,096,870	$9,832,322	$92,102,327	JULY QUARTERLY	June 30, 2024
Kamala Harris	$95,946,483	$117,347,709	$189,960,709	JULY QUARTERLY	June 30, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$128,096,870

Raised

$9,832,322

Spent

$92,102,327

Report

JULY QUARTERLY

Date

June 30, 2024

Candidate

Kamala Harris

Cash on hand

$95,946,483

Raised

$117,347,709

Spent

$189,960,709

Report

JULY QUARTERLY

Date

June 30, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for . By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.