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Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Elissa Slotkin has a 66% chance of winning .

Incumbent Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow is retiring, setting the stage for Michigan's first open Senate race for this seat since 1994, which was also the only time Republicans won a Michigan U.S. Senate race since 1972. Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin, known for outperforming in her previous House elections, is the heavy favorite to secure the Democratic nomination. She is likely to face former Congressman Mike Rogers, who has received Donald Trump's endorsement in the Republican primary. Michigan, a swing state, is considered to be purple to slightly blue at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying it by 2.8% in the 2020 presidential election after Donald Trump narrowly won by 0.2% in 2016—the first Republican presidential victory in Michigan since 1988. However, Democrats have enjoyed more success in recent years, currently controlling both U.S. Senate seats, seven of 13 U.S. House seats, holding a minimum majority in both houses of the Michigan Legislature, and all statewide offices. Given the state's nearly even partisan lean and the absence of an incumbent, this race is expected to be highly competitive.

CandidatePartyWin %

Elissa Slotkin

66%

Mike Rogers

34%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning undefined over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

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Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Mike Rogers

Cash on hand

$1,888,295

Raised

$8,142,799

Spent

$8,764,638

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Elissa Slotkin

Cash on hand

$1,420,517

Raised

$40,686,306

Spent

$44,341,278

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for . By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Senate Vote %Total Votes

Gary C. Peters

49.90%

2,734,568

John James

48.22%

2,642,233

Valerie Willis

0.92%

50,597

Marcia Squier

0.72%

39,217

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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