Arizona 1 House Forecast lean gop

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that David Schweikert has a 69% chance of winning Arizona 1.

Candidate	Party	Win %
David Schweikert INCUMBENT		69%
Amish Shah		31%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning Arizona 1 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Arizona 1

Cook PVI

R+2.0

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Amish Shah	$790,724	$4,678,195	$4,708,427	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024
David Schweikert	$392,858	$1,521,944	$3,466,392	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024

Candidate

Amish Shah

Cash on hand

$790,724

Raised

$4,678,195

Spent

$4,708,427

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

David Schweikert

Cash on hand

$392,858

Raised

$1,521,944

Spent

$3,466,392

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Arizona 1. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.