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California 21 House Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Jim Costa has a 97% chance of winning California 21.

CandidatePartyWin %

Jim Costa

INCUMBENT

97%

Michael Maher

3%

Chance of winning California 21 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About California 21

Cook PVI

D+8.7

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Jim Costa

Cash on hand

$942,368

Raised

$412,815

Spent

$526,486

Date

March 31, 2024

Candidate

Michael Maher

Cash on hand

$36,387

Raised

$320,196

Spent

$292,533

Date

March 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for California 21. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 California House 21Vote %Total Votes

Jim Costa

54.18%

68,074

Michael Maher

45.82%

57,573

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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