California 3 House Forecast likely gop

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Kevin Kiley has a 88% chance of winning California 3.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Kevin Kiley INCUMBENT		88%
Jessica Morse		12%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning California 3 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About California 3

Cook PVI

R+3.7

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Kevin Kiley	$853,544	$2,838,731	$3,214,729	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024
Jessica Morse	$179,107	$2,606,200	$2,826,767	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024

Candidate

Kevin Kiley

Cash on hand

$853,544

Raised

$2,838,731

Spent

$3,214,729

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Jessica Morse

Cash on hand

$179,107

Raised

$2,606,200

Spent

$2,826,767

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for California 3. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.