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California 40 House Forecast likely gop

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Young Kim has a 88% chance of winning California 40.

CandidatePartyWin %

Young Kim

INCUMBENT

88%

Joseph Kerr

12%

Chance of winning California 40 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About California 40

Cook PVI

R+1.9

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Young Kim

Cash on hand

$2,947,461

Raised

$3,110,631

Spent

$2,459,871

Date

March 31, 2024

Candidate

Joseph Kerr

Cash on hand

$397,826

Raised

$234,885

Spent

$1,118,325

Date

March 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for California 40. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 California House 40Vote %Total Votes

Young Kim

56.84%

161,589

Asif Mahmood

43.16%

122,722

+ More Elections

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Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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