California 40 House Forecast likely gop

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Young Kim has a 89% chance of winning California 40.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Young Kim INCUMBENT		89%
Joseph Kerr		11%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning California 40 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About California 40

Cook PVI

R+1.9

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Young Kim	$2,822,770	$5,384,696	$6,015,655	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024
Joseph Kerr	$386,880	$605,250	$1,603,943	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024

Candidate

Young Kim

Cash on hand

$2,822,770

Raised

$5,384,696

Spent

$6,015,655

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Joseph Kerr

Cash on hand

$386,880

Raised

$605,250

Spent

$1,603,943

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for California 40. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.