| Candidate | Party | Win % |
|---|---|---|
Thomas Massie INCUMBENT | >99% | |
Matthew Lehman | <1% |
View the archived 2024 forecast
Chance of winning Kentucky 4 over time
Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.
About Kentucky 4
Cook PVI
R+19.3
Last Winner
Republican
Campaign Finance
An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.
| Candidate | Cash on hand | Raised | Spent | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thomas Massie | $693,374 | $644,993 | $356,870 | May 1, 2024 | |
Matthew Lehman | $0 | $230 | $8,827 | December 31, 2023 |
Candidate
Cash on hand
$693,374
Raised
$644,993
Spent
$356,870
Report
Date
May 1, 2024
Past Elections
This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Kentucky 4. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.
| 2022 Kentucky House 04 | Vote % | Total Votes |
|---|---|---|
Thomas Massie | 65.03% | 167,541 |
Matthew Lehman | 31.04% | 79,977 |
Ethan Keith Osborne | 3.92% | 10,111 |
2022 Kentucky House 04
Thomas Massie
Vote %
65.03%
Total Votes
167,541
2022 Kentucky House 04
Matthew Lehman
Vote %
31.04%
Total Votes
79,977
2022 Kentucky House 04
Ethan Keith Osborne
Vote %
3.92%
Total Votes
10,111
+ More Elections
Featured Races
Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.
Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.
