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Minnesota 4 House Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Betty McCollum has a >99% chance of winning Minnesota 4.

CandidatePartyWin %

Betty McCollum

INCUMBENT

>99%

Mike Casey

<1%

Chance of winning Minnesota 4 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Minnesota 4

Cook PVI

D+16.6

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Betty McCollum

Cash on hand

$766,636

Raised

$685,303

Spent

$649,707

Date

March 31, 2024

Candidate

Mike Casey

Cash on hand

$0

Raised

$2,981

Spent

$3,266

Report

Date

December 31, 2023

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Minnesota 4. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 Minnesota House 04Vote %Total Votes

Betty McCollum

67.69%

200,055

May Lor Xiong

32.31%

95,493

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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