Decision Desk HQ / The Hill Logo

Decision Desk HQ and The Hill’s ultimate hub for polls, predictions, and election results.

No results found

Minnesota 5 House Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Ilhan Omar has a >99% chance of winning Minnesota 5.

CandidatePartyWin %

Ilhan Omar

INCUMBENT

>99%

Dalia Al-Aqidi

<1%

Chance of winning Minnesota 5 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Minnesota 5

Cook PVI

D+29.7

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Ilhan Omar

Cash on hand

$2,193,953

Raised

$4,688,967

Spent

$2,772,584

Date

March 31, 2024

Candidate

Dalia Al-Aqidi

Cash on hand

$60,451

Raised

$578,538

Spent

$518,144

Date

March 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Minnesota 5. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 Minnesota House 05Vote %Total Votes

Ilhan Omar

75.19%

214,224

Cicely Davis

24.81%

70,702

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

Related Stories