Minnesota 5 House Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Ilhan Omar has a >99% chance of winning Minnesota 5.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Ilhan Omar INCUMBENT		>99%
Dalia Al-Aqidi		<1%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning Minnesota 5 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Minnesota 5

Cook PVI

D+29.7

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Ilhan Omar	$453,066	$7,682,884	$7,633,272	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024
Dalia Al-Aqidi	$153,855	$1,949,054	$1,807,279	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024

Candidate

Ilhan Omar

Cash on hand

$453,066

Raised

$7,682,884

Spent

$7,633,272

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Dalia Al-Aqidi

Cash on hand

$153,855

Raised

$1,949,054

Spent

$1,807,279

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Minnesota 5. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.