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Mississippi 1 House Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Trent Kelly has a >99% chance of winning Mississippi 1.

CandidatePartyWin %

Trent Kelly

INCUMBENT

>99%

Dianne Black

<1%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning Mississippi 1 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Mississippi 1

Cook PVI

R+18.4

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Trent Kelly

Cash on hand

$613,759

Raised

$557,085

Spent

$893,237

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Dianne Black

Cash on hand

-$2,063

Raised

$9,444

Spent

$7,450

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Mississippi 1. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 Mississippi House 01Vote %Total Votes

Trent Kelly

72.97%

122,151

Dianne Black

27.03%

45,238

+ More Elections

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Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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