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Missouri 5 House Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Emanuel Cleaver has a >99% chance of winning Missouri 5.

CandidatePartyWin %

Emanuel Cleaver

INCUMBENT

>99%

Sean Smith

<1%

Chance of winning Missouri 5 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Missouri 5

Cook PVI

D+10.8

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Emanuel Cleaver

Cash on hand

$868,152

Raised

$170,552

Spent

$733,050

Date

March 31, 2024

Candidate

Sean Smith

Cash on hand

$39,162

Raised

$20,329

Spent

$13,961

Date

March 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Missouri 5. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 Missouri House 05Vote %Total Votes

Emanuel Cleaver, II

61.02%

140,688

Jacob Turk

36.44%

84,008

Robin Dominick

2.54%

5,859

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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