| Candidate | Party | Win % |
|---|---|---|
Ryan Zinke INCUMBENT | 83% | |
Monica Tranel | 17% |
View the archived 2024 forecast
Chance of winning Montana 1 over time
Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.
About Montana 1
Cook PVI
R+6.2
Last Winner
Republican
7 polls
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 – 18 | 500 LV | Impact Research/Moni... | 46.0%Zinke 45.0%Tranel | +1 Zinke |
| Oct 14 – 17 | 400 LV | Guidant Polling and ... | 52.0%Zinke 44.0%Tranel | +8 Zinke |
| Oct 1 – 17 | 326 Adults | Montana State Univer... | 44.0%Zinke 37.0%Tranel | +7 Zinke |
+ More Polls
Campaign Finance
An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.
| Candidate | Cash on hand | Raised | Spent | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ryan Zinke | $1,874,182 | $7,340,210 | $7,601,939 | October 16, 2024 | |
Monica Tranel | $804,317 | $4,898,027 | $4,887,377 | October 16, 2024 |
Candidate
Cash on hand
$1,874,182
Raised
$7,340,210
Spent
$7,601,939
Report
Date
October 16, 2024
Candidate
Cash on hand
$804,317
Raised
$4,898,027
Spent
$4,887,377
Report
Date
October 16, 2024
Past Elections
This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Montana 1. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.
| 2022 Montana House 01 | Vote % | Total Votes |
|---|---|---|
Ryan K. Zinke | 49.65% | 123,102 |
Monica Tranel | 46.49% | 115,265 |
John Lamb | 3.87% | 9,593 |
2022 Montana House 01
Ryan K. Zinke
Vote %
49.65%
Total Votes
123,102
2022 Montana House 01
Monica Tranel
Vote %
46.49%
Total Votes
115,265
2022 Montana House 01
John Lamb
Vote %
3.87%
Total Votes
9,593
+ More Elections
Featured Races
Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.
Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.
