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New Mexico 3 House Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Teresa Leger Fernandez has a 95% chance of winning New Mexico 3.

CandidatePartyWin %

Teresa Leger Fernandez

INCUMBENT

95%

Sharone Clahchischilliage

5%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning New Mexico 3 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About New Mexico 3

Cook PVI

D+3.6

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Teresa Leger Fernandez

Cash on hand

$548,216

Raised

$1,633,823

Spent

$1,492,995

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Sharone Clahchischilliage

Cash on hand

$200

Raised

$68,560

Spent

$78,760

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New Mexico 3. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 New Mexico House 03Vote %Total Votes

Teresa Leger Fernandez

58.16%

134,217

Alexis Martinez Johnson

41.84%

96,565

+ More Elections

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Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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