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New York 12 House Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Jerry Nadler has a >99% chance of winning New York 12.

CandidatePartyWin %

Jerry Nadler

INCUMBENT

>99%

Republican

<1%

Chance of winning New York 12 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About New York 12

Cook PVI

D+33.6

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Jerry Nadler

Cash on hand

$216,005

Raised

$540,536

Spent

$647,515

Date

June 5, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New York 12. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 New York House 12Vote %Total Votes

Jerrold L. Nadler

81.76%

200,890

Michael Zumbluskas

17.98%

44,173

Mikhail Itkis

0.26%

631

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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