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New York 18 House Forecast likely dem

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Pat Ryan has a 81% chance of winning New York 18.

CandidatePartyWin %

Pat Ryan

INCUMBENT

81%

Alison Esposito

19%

Chance of winning New York 18 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About New York 18

Cook PVI

D+1.6

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Pat Ryan

Cash on hand

$3,107,658

Raised

$3,570,933

Spent

$1,637,448

Date

June 5, 2024

Candidate

Alison Esposito

Cash on hand

$345,289

Raised

$506,018

Spent

$506,292

Date

June 5, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New York 18. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 New York House 18Vote %Total Votes

Pat Ryan

50.67%

135,245

Colin J. Schmitt

49.33%

131,653

+ More Elections

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Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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