New York 18 House Forecast likely dem

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Pat Ryan has a 89% chance of winning New York 18.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Pat Ryan INCUMBENT		89%
Alison Esposito		11%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning New York 18 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About New York 18

Cook PVI

D+1.6

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Pat Ryan	$923,807	$5,620,340	$6,655,113	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024
Alison Esposito	$546,692	$1,134,058	$1,629,732	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024

Candidate

Pat Ryan

Cash on hand

$923,807

Raised

$5,620,340

Spent

$6,655,113

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Alison Esposito

Cash on hand

$546,692

Raised

$1,134,058

Spent

$1,629,732

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New York 18. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.