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New York 2 House Forecast likely gop

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Andrew Garbarino has a 94% chance of winning New York 2.

CandidatePartyWin %

Andrew Garbarino

INCUMBENT

94%

Rob Lubin

6%

Chance of winning New York 2 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About New York 2

Cook PVI

R+3.8

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Andrew Garbarino

Cash on hand

$1,642,590

Raised

$753,579

Spent

$1,168,629

Date

June 5, 2024

Candidate

Rob Lubin

Cash on hand

$270,788

Raised

$660,716

Spent

$554,252

Date

June 5, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New York 2. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 New York House 02Vote %Total Votes

Andrew R. Garbarino

60.73%

151,178

Jackie Gordon

39.27%

97,774

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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