New York 22 House Forecast tossup POTENTIAL FLIP

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that John Mannion has a 61% chance of winning New York 22.

Candidate	Party	Win %
John Mannion		61%
Brandon Williams INCUMBENT		39%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning New York 22 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About New York 22

Cook PVI

D+3.0

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
John Mannion	$456,941	$2,999,198	$3,098,561	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024
Brandon Williams	$348,972	$1,709,231	$3,613,554	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024

Candidate

John Mannion

Cash on hand

$456,941

Raised

$2,999,198

Spent

$3,098,561

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Brandon Williams

Cash on hand

$348,972

Raised

$1,709,231

Spent

$3,613,554

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New York 22. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.