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New York 22 House Forecast tossup POTENTIAL FLIP

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that John Mannion has a 53% chance of winning New York 22.

CandidatePartyWin %

John Mannion

53%

Brandon Williams

INCUMBENT

47%

Chance of winning New York 22 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About New York 22

Cook PVI

D+3.0

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Brandon Williams

Cash on hand

$1,053,155

Raised

$995,928

Spent

$1,357,305

Date

June 5, 2024

Candidate

John Mannion

Cash on hand

$206,149

Raised

$735,477

Spent

$663,043

Date

June 5, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New York 22. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 New York House 22Vote %Total Votes

Francis Conole

49.51%

132,913

Brandon M. Williams

50.49%

135,544

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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