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Pennsylvania 10 House Forecast lean dem POTENTIAL FLIP

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Janelle Stelson has a 67% chance of winning Pennsylvania 10.

CandidatePartyWin %

Janelle Stelson

67%

Scott Perry

INCUMBENT

33%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning Pennsylvania 10 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Pennsylvania 10

Cook PVI

R+4.8

Last Winner

Republican

5 polls

Oct 8

300 LV

Susquehanna Polling ...
48.0%

Stelson

39.0%

Perry

+9 Stelson

Jul 31 – Aug 3

600 LV

Upswing Research/DCC...
48.0%

Stelson

47.0%

Perry

+1 Stelson

May 29 – Jun 3

397 RV

Franklin & Marshall ...
45.0%

Perry

44.0%

Stelson

+1 Perry

+ More Polls

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Janelle Stelson

Cash on hand

$657,051

Raised

$4,534,040

Spent

$4,722,759

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Scott Perry

Cash on hand

$538,405

Raised

$3,145,091

Spent

$3,497,597

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Pennsylvania 10. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 Pennsylvania House 10Vote %Total Votes

Scott Perry

53.83%

169,331

Shamaine Daniels

46.17%

145,215

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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