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Pennsylvania 16 House Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that George Kelly has a >99% chance of winning Pennsylvania 16.

CandidatePartyWin %

George Kelly

INCUMBENT

>99%

Preston Nouri

<1%

Chance of winning Pennsylvania 16 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Pennsylvania 16

Cook PVI

R+12.7

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

George Kelly

Cash on hand

$1,334,713

Raised

$284,228

Spent

$413,949

Date

April 3, 2024

Candidate

Preston Nouri

Cash on hand

$80,249

Raised

$178,156

Spent

$194,274

Date

April 3, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Pennsylvania 16. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 Pennsylvania House 16Vote %Total Votes

Mike Kelly

59.36%

190,546

Dan Pastore

40.64%

130,443

+ More Elections

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Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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