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Texas 15 House Forecast likely gop

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Monica De La Cruz has a 90% chance of winning Texas 15.

CandidatePartyWin %

Monica De La Cruz

INCUMBENT

90%

Michelle Vallejo

10%

Chance of winning Texas 15 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Texas 15

Cook PVI

R+1.4

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Monica De La Cruz

Cash on hand

$1,485,520

Raised

$2,126,324

Spent

$2,260,442

Date

March 31, 2024

Candidate

Michelle Vallejo

Cash on hand

$458,359

Raised

$714,745

Spent

$473,700

Date

March 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Texas 15. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 Texas House 15Vote %Total Votes

Monica De La Cruz

53.31%

80,978

Michelle Vallejo

44.83%

68,097

Ross Lynn Leone Jr.

1.85%

2,814

+ More Elections

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Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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