Texas 4 House Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Pat Fallon has a >99% chance of winning Texas 4.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Pat Fallon INCUMBENT		>99%
Simon Cardell		<1%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning Texas 4 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Texas 4

Cook PVI

R+16.4

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Pat Fallon	$564,500	$241,101	$264,054	JULY QUARTERLY	June 30, 2024
Simon Cardell	$2,797	$6,337	$6,008	JULY QUARTERLY	June 30, 2024

Candidate

Pat Fallon

Cash on hand

$564,500

Raised

$241,101

Spent

$264,054

Report

JULY QUARTERLY

Date

June 30, 2024

Candidate

Simon Cardell

Cash on hand

$2,797

Raised

$6,337

Spent

$6,008

Report

JULY QUARTERLY

Date

June 30, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Texas 4. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.