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Texas 4 House Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Patrick Fallon has a >99% chance of winning Texas 4.

CandidatePartyWin %

Patrick Fallon

INCUMBENT

>99%

Simon Cardell

<1%

Chance of winning Texas 4 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Texas 4

Cook PVI

R+16.4

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Patrick Fallon

Cash on hand

$507,319

Raised

$186,833

Spent

$207,687

Date

March 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Texas 4. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 Texas House 04Vote %Total Votes

Pat Fallon

66.71%

170,781

Iro Omere

30.93%

79,179

John Simmons

2.36%

6,049

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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